Research? Now!
Four months after the coronavirus lockdown first hit here in Berlin, and I'm finally able to put pen to paper again.
The whole experience has been so overwhelming, in so many ways, that I've found it impossible to just share impressions or express an opinion - things have been too bewildering. Dazed, I lost the clarity needed to write this blog.
Now the fog seems to be lifting slowly - it seems easier to be analytical towards things that are still clearly weird and confusing....
Will there be a second wave/ lockdown - and what then? Will Trump get re-elected, or are the opinion polls actually accurate this time?
More pragmatically:what will happen to client budget levels?
What about shopping and consumption patterns?
I don't own any crystal balls - but my hypothesis is. the dust is beginning to settle. Whilst uncertainty still reigns, many countries may have turned a corner.
Time then for social and market research experts to throw some light on the changes and complexities of consumer sentiment? My voice is back in any case.
Consumers: Cautious and Confused
Here's some pieces of evidence to support the above hypothesis.
Consumer confidence indices are beginning to show signs of a rebound - witness the UK Gfk "rise" from -30 to -27 in July 2020 (Gfk UK/ Confidence. In Germany the same index jumped 9 points from July to June 2020 - from -19 to -10 (Gfk Germany/Confidence). In the US the most recent data is more bumpy - as measured by Nielsen/ The Conference Board (Conference Board/ USA)
But plenty of other indicators in the USA are beginning to flash positive, as the same report shows. Plus there's the V shape recovery of many of the world's major stockmarkets such as the DAX or the S&P 500 - the Nasdaq is even on an all-time high.
Are we out of the woods? By no means, but still there are signs of optimism.
Now is absolutely the time to invest in exploratory research, to understand how people are feeling as they emerge from this great turmoil. Not to mention the impact of movements like #blacklivesmatter.
Confusion is the most likely single word to summarise it - which needs serious unpacking.
Cue MR.
Have things changed a lot, a little, or not at all?
It sounds like a typical quant question - but this is essentially what all marketing folk need to know for their future NPD and communications activities, the long and the short of it.
It's also extremely difficult to answer.
Behavioural data tells us a lot - but it doesn't get to the "why", nor does it reveal anything about things people are struggling with, which they may find difficult putting into words.
This likely encompasses almost everything over the past 4 months for huge swathes of the population regardless of geography.
Professional market research is ideally placed to help get to the bottom of people's mindsets, throw light on changes in decision making and shopping modes, help brands and policy makers alike steer a course in uncharted waters.
Qualitative research in particular has proven its ability to deliver depth digitally - to get beyond overly rational responses using screen-to-screen, using projective or storytelling techniques for example.
It doesn't have to be too strategic either: even the most pragmatic and tactical research gives us insights, indicators as to how people's mind-states have shifted - how diversity and gender issues are reflected or not in TVC pre-tests for example.
Researchers of the World - Unite!
My take - it's time for us folk in MR to switch gear from bewildered to bold.
We are the folk with the rounded skill sets to help decision makers interpret different data sets that may have contradictory aspects in them - it's what we've done for decades.
If re-labeling helps - I saw Pew Research referred to as a leading Think Tank recently - then fine. And if Behavioural Science helps us get a seat at the top table because it's something that decision makers now think is the big thing, then great. Maybe we're consultants, maybe we're analysts, whatever.
One thing is clear: our voices need to be heard more - individually and collectively. The virologists have been heard - rightly so - ditto the data modellers.
Isn't it our turn? As health concerns recede slowly, economic issues become more pressing, and a range of indicators suggest that confidence is returning, it's time for us "market" folk to speak up and out. Nobody is better placed.
Understanding the new sensitivities around an emerging "new consumption mindset" is critical - some assumptions that have underpinned 3 years plans may not hold any more. The deep dip into digital may have caused many a fundamental shift in category perceptions.
Whatever our specialisms and competitive concerns, there's one message we could/ should all have: there is no better time to do research than now.
So - Research? Yes. Now!
Curious, as ever, as to others' thoughts.